YLL討論網

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恩 我覺得要換
1.不換
因為一開始已知正面是生
也就是(生生)與(生死)其中之一 在固定正面為生的情況下
抽到(生生)就活反之則死 故存活率是1/2
2.換
若一開始是(生生) 換後則是(生死)與(死死)擇一
因為(死死)必死= =故只討論(生死)..抽中機率1/2
生為正面..死為背面...死...機率1/2*1/2=1/4
死為正面..生為背面...活...機率1/2*1/2=1/4
又若一開始是(生死) 換後則是(生生)與(死死)擇一
同理(死死)必死 只討論(生生)...抽中機率1/2
在此無論哪面為正面皆活 不過要算也可以
即1/2*1/2+1/2*1/2=1/2
故換後活的機率=1/4+1/2=3/4

討論Jel的算法我認為以數状結構來看有問題
例如一開始(生生)與(生死)機率應該各為1/2
而(生生)正反面問題應該是在(生生)之下討論機率各為1/2*1/2
不應該與(生死)並列而變成各為1/3了

正所謂「人總有一死」
換與不換  也要死
隨緣吧

我以為這才是正解:

總共三個銅板，共六面
你拿到某個銅板，且把某面當成正面的機率是 1/6...

但是前提是你拿到一個銅板，『而且』正面是生
所以只有三種可能，機率各為 1/3

1.你拿到『生、死』的『生』
2.你拿到『生、生』的某一面『生』
3.你拿到『生、生』的另一面『生』

要知道 2. 和 3. 是不一樣地，你可假想『生、生』的銅板兩面塗不同色，兩面都可能被當成正面，另一面就變反面

因此你的存活率是 2/3，很高的， 如下：

1.你拿到『生、死』的『生』 --> 背面是『死』 (1/3)
2.你拿到『生、生』的某一面『生』 --> 背面是『生』 (1/3)
3.你拿到『生、生』的另一面『生』 --> 背面是『生』 (1/3)

那如果你要換銅板呢？
拜託別再重算一次了...
我們都知道機率的總和是 1
沒錯吧

既然不換銅板的存活率是 2/3
那換銅板的存活率是 1 - 2/3 = 1/3

所以答案是：不要換

大家都說是1/2...
我覺得不換比較好, 贏面是 2/3
嘻

之前有回了....為啥現在不能看影藏訊息....

代碼:

登入會員才能看隱藏訊息~J+W

不換好像比較好









11111

想想看~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

我會賭下去∼

換不換
生與死的機率都是二分之一阿
所以沒差^^

一半一半吧,不管有沒有換,機率都是1/2

看運氣的吧

挖勒..忘記登入變訪客=3=
樓上那是我
看別人的回覆..

阿..錯了XD

今天,你拿到了一個銅板,其正面是[生],但,你卻不知道其背面為何.
正面是生的有2個，所以背面是生的機率是1/2

但如果要換..你拿到的可能本來就是正確的
所以如果要換..正確機率變成1/3

不知道對不對^^"

直得探討

參考一下大家的解法^^
記得好像在某個討論區也看過一樣的題目.........

p(反面生/正面生)=0.5
p(反面死/正面生)=0.5
half half
聽天由命吧

[hide:77b5b8c7b3]這個簡單當然是當然看~~剩下的兩個只有兩種可能a(死死)b(生生)c(生死)
當你看到另一個背面為死為(a，c)，那面完全沒看的另一個就會是b(生生)
當你看到另一面背面為生(b，c)背面是生的只有一個那麼一定是b(生生)
不過~~你只要跟他說~~你不識文字~~本來無一物，何處....叫他看著辦qq
當然是開玩笑的~~因為這個題也是創造的玩笑題~~所以qq
[/hide:77b5b8c7b3]
原來是我沒看清楚題目~~不過當你手上正面是生~~
那麼由另一個背面來決定~~那麼其它兩面的背面只會有一個答案qq

不換  死的機率是1/2
換  死的機率還是1/2
沒有差別
對嗎?

很好玩的題目......可是好難想啊!答案是啥啊?